Jan 15, 2013 11:00pm PST
. >> and i think in an environment where you have hundreds of millions of chinese on twitter, that increasingly are learning their government officials are worth billions of dollars. >> rose: basically you are saying their fear is legitimate. >> i think their fear is legitimate, i don't think the country is going to fall apart. >> rose: butery rong protesmoveme that has legs could provide a challenge over -- >> that's right. and they are so unwilling to risk that, they are so unwilling to tolerate even a little that they are likely to do two things, first, it will truly slow them on economic reform that is necessary and on any political reform to make a very conservative and cautious and they need to speed up and respond to these people and makes it much more likely the chinese will engage in nationalism, because if you are going to get mad at something in china you are going to have this information you can't stop the chinese from -- >> ros raise the natnalism ag. yes and thais really -- >> rose: write is the reason in places in europe you have a certain national link, natio
Jan 15, 2013 8:00pm EST
something very different. the individual if you would have taught that in a classroom environment adjust a discussion on -- [inaudible] that's very important dynamic there. >> game changer, shell gas, more regulation, barrier, culture. i want to talk about the here mowns. [laughter] mcken city is about the cutting age looking at not only global manufacturing trends but trends you're describing advanced industry. and innovation. how do you see it? >> i think very much is said at the beginning of the context claus. there's a shift doing on. i think we should start by saying too many of us lump manufacturing in to one big category. i think there are at least five categories. i won't bore with them. i think the tip is the advanced manufacturing which is more using big data. it's advanced material. it's nano technology. it's the combination of many of the things the innovation capabilities that this country is good at the cross functional capability. as you said, it's -- it's roughly around 11 to 12% of gdp. it's extremely important fly wheel. it accounts, football we think, a third of the u.
Jan 16, 2013 4:00am EST
the question people ask is, can we see anything from the fourth quarter that will tell us what the environment in 2013 is like. i guess my answer to that would still be no. fiscal cliff issues, europe, the election, tropical storms, et cetera, and there's still no real clarity on what the business models, investment banking are going to look like as we head toward three. it's going to be much better numbers than a year ago. numbers are going to be slightly down versus the third quarter. and -- to my mind, there's still really nothing we'll be able to take away from the numbers in terms of -- >> which is frustrating because we're at a time when we are trying to re-evaluate what the model is going to be, what earnings will look like going forward. in your view, what is -- what is the investment case for these investment banks today? >> well, the investment case for an investment bank is that when they work very well, they are extremely capital -- if i advise a company and get a fee for ecm or m&a deal, it requires no capital, and i get a lot of money. that's very attractive. the second thing is